The uneven benefits of conservation: A spatial analysis of how different protection regimes influence local development in Polish municipalities

The balance between environmental protection and socioeconomic development remains a critical policy challenge. Conservation efforts may constrain local development but can also generate benefits beyond nature protection itself, with effects varying across protection regimes and spatial scales. Poland provides a compelling case for examining this trade-off, given its rapid economic growth alongside the significant expansion of protected areas (PAs) in recent decades. This study assesses the relationship between nature protection regimes and local development across Polish municipalities between 2009 and 2022. Using spatial econometric modelling (Spatial Durbin Error Model), we estimate the direct and indirect effects of national parks, nature reserves, and Natura 2000 sites on three dimensions of local development: economic, social, and infrastructural. The most consistent positive effects are observed for economic development in municipalities with a high share of national parks and Natura 2000 sites. Infrastructure-related effects are limited: only Natura 2000 areas show a positive direct effect, while negative indirect effects suggest regional competition for investment. Social impacts are predominantly negative, particularly for stricter protection regimes, and extend beyond administrative boundaries, likely reflecting integrated labour markets. These findings challenge the notion that conservation uniformly constrains economic development. Instead, they indicate that outcomes vary by protection regime and that benefits are unevenly distributed, supporting local economic growth while reinforcing social exclusion. The study underscores the need for policies that mitigate social costs and promote more equitable and territorially integrated development under expanding conservation efforts.