US Global Leadership and the Place of Eastern Europe
This paper offers an analysis of economic grounds of Pax Americana in the perspective of next 10- 20 years and a prediction of the future place of Eastern Europe in the constellation of the US’s interests. In the first part of the article factors conditioning geopolitical power of selected countries are identified and weighed using network and structural analyses. Crucial factors of geopolitical power include wealth (total and per capita), production of leading goods and innovativeness. The next part contains a comparative analysis of Pax Britannica and Pax Americana in order to establish a gradation of power factors. It appears that domination in the production of leading goods is the crucial factor. Analyses of the contribution of various countries to the development of a “new economy” shows that around 2020 the US will still be the most important power of the Western world. The place of Eastern Europe in Pax Americana will be defined by its place in the global strategy of the US, weak links of the region with the US’s national interest and the “partnership in leadership” relations between the US and Germany. Fluctuations in the energy market will make the American elite discuss its regulations which can mark the beginning of a new and different outlook regarding also other sectors of global economy.